Goldman reiterates Buy on Kioxia with a ¥116,000 target — more than 120% upside from current levels near ¥52,500. Date on the note: August 28, 2026.
The thesis is NAND-first. Profits are already strong. AI and data-center demand is pulling supply tight. Goldman sees room for shareholder returns and multiple expansion even as new capex headlines hit.
Policy matters here. U.S. export controls make it harder for Samsung and SK Hynix to scale output from Chinese fabs. That caps incremental NAND supply just as demand stays elevated. Prices stay firmer across the board — including names tied to Sandisk.
Memory cycles have burned people before. This one is different: it's being driven by AI infrastructure, not just phones and PCs. And export rules are adding a supply constraint that wasn't there in prior cycles.
That's why the Street is getting more constructive on Kioxia and the broader NAND complex.
Valuation, China risk, and the length of the capex wave will decide whether ¥116,000 is a real target or just a headline.
#Kioxia $KIOXIA
The thesis is NAND-first. Profits are already strong. AI and data-center demand is pulling supply tight. Goldman sees room for shareholder returns and multiple expansion even as new capex headlines hit.
Policy matters here. U.S. export controls make it harder for Samsung and SK Hynix to scale output from Chinese fabs. That caps incremental NAND supply just as demand stays elevated. Prices stay firmer across the board — including names tied to Sandisk.
Memory cycles have burned people before. This one is different: it's being driven by AI infrastructure, not just phones and PCs. And export rules are adding a supply constraint that wasn't there in prior cycles.
That's why the Street is getting more constructive on Kioxia and the broader NAND complex.
Valuation, China risk, and the length of the capex wave will decide whether ¥116,000 is a real target or just a headline.
#Kioxia $KIOXIA