$382 billion in Canadian imports recorded in 2025 — and Trump just lit a fuse under 5% of that. The 50% tariff wall is narrow on paper, but the expectation was a negotiation. The outcome is a trade war with no talks planned.
I positioned for a headline-driven risk-off fade. USTR Jamieson Greer said "we have said enough." That is not a negotiating posture — it is a declaration. Canada matched with C$27.6 billion in counter-tariffs across 700 goods, effective September 8. My thesis assumed a last-minute pullback. It failed.
The decision error was underestimating Carney. He threatened energy exports: 99% of U.S. natural gas imports, 85% of electricity, 60% of crude. The C$7.5 billion aid package signals a multi-month fight, not a week-long standoff. I am trimming risk, not adding.
I positioned for a headline-driven risk-off fade. USTR Jamieson Greer said "we have said enough." That is not a negotiating posture — it is a declaration. Canada matched with C$27.6 billion in counter-tariffs across 700 goods, effective September 8. My thesis assumed a last-minute pullback. It failed.
The decision error was underestimating Carney. He threatened energy exports: 99% of U.S. natural gas imports, 85% of electricity, 60% of crude. The C$7.5 billion aid package signals a multi-month fight, not a week-long standoff. I am trimming risk, not adding.
