$45 billion locked into a six-year lease — that is the size of the commitment Anthropic just signed with Nscale for 460 megawatts at the Monarch campus in West Virginia. The behavioral risk is obvious: this is a fixed obligation with revenue that depends entirely on demand for AI models that do not exist yet in their 2028 form.
Why it looks attractive: AI infrastructure scarcity is real, and locking in capacity before competitors seems rational. Microsoft signed a letter of intent in March and exited this summer. Anthropic replaced them. The full campus is 1.35 gigawatts at roughly $71 billion total investment, with about $47 billion for AI chips. Capacity comes online late next year, remaining buildings in 2028.
Known: the $45 billion payment schedule and the 460 megawatt footprint. Uncertain: whether Nvidia Vera Rubin chips deliver the performance assumptions behind the lease economics. Also uncertain: Nscale's IPO timing, disclosed at approximately $51 billion in cumulative contracted revenue. The 460 MW equals power for about 345,000 U.S. households.
Framework: never let a single deal represent more than 20% of your conviction. This is one lease, one campus, one chip generation. Breathe. 🛡️
Why it looks attractive: AI infrastructure scarcity is real, and locking in capacity before competitors seems rational. Microsoft signed a letter of intent in March and exited this summer. Anthropic replaced them. The full campus is 1.35 gigawatts at roughly $71 billion total investment, with about $47 billion for AI chips. Capacity comes online late next year, remaining buildings in 2028.
Known: the $45 billion payment schedule and the 460 megawatt footprint. Uncertain: whether Nvidia Vera Rubin chips deliver the performance assumptions behind the lease economics. Also uncertain: Nscale's IPO timing, disclosed at approximately $51 billion in cumulative contracted revenue. The 460 MW equals power for about 345,000 U.S. households.
Framework: never let a single deal represent more than 20% of your conviction. This is one lease, one campus, one chip generation. Breathe. 🛡️
