$45 billion over six years — the scale of Anthropic's compute lease from Nscale at the Monarch campus in West Virginia. The catalyst is clear: Anthropic replaces Microsoft, which signed a letter of intent in March and exited this summer. The direct effect is a locked-in 460 megawatts of Nvidia Vera Rubin capacity starting late next year.
The second-order consequence is Nscale's IPO pipeline. Nscale disclosed approximately $51 billion in cumulative contracted revenue to potential investors, with a U.S. IPO possibly as early as next month. The Anthropic lease converts to instant credibility for that offering. The remaining ~890 megawatts of the 1.35 gigawatt campus start in 2028 — unleased. Nscale carries roughly $71 billion in total investment with about $47 billion in chips.
What would prove this view wrong is Microsoft returning to co-lease remaining capacity before the IPO pricing. Variable to monitor: Nscale's IPO subscription book and whether Anthropic's $45 billion commitment is structured as fixed payments or usage-based. 🔔
The second-order consequence is Nscale's IPO pipeline. Nscale disclosed approximately $51 billion in cumulative contracted revenue to potential investors, with a U.S. IPO possibly as early as next month. The Anthropic lease converts to instant credibility for that offering. The remaining ~890 megawatts of the 1.35 gigawatt campus start in 2028 — unleased. Nscale carries roughly $71 billion in total investment with about $47 billion in chips.
What would prove this view wrong is Microsoft returning to co-lease remaining capacity before the IPO pricing. Variable to monitor: Nscale's IPO subscription book and whether Anthropic's $45 billion commitment is structured as fixed payments or usage-based. 🔔
