0.02% — that is the entire S&P 500 decline to 7,675.70, and yet everyone is screaming about rate-hike fears. The common interpretation is that resilient 3.3% core PCE reignited hawkish expectations and pressured equities. But the index barely moved, and that divergence is the chart worth saving.
The overlooked variable is semiconductor strength. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 0.2% to 11,611.24 with 19 of 30 constituents green, even as Nvidia fell 1.59%. Western Digital surged 4.02%, Seagate added 3.01%, and SanDisk rose 1.26%. Storage and memory are telling you something different from mega-cap AI.
The implication is clear: headline PCE at 3.7% year-over-year versus 3.6% expected matters less than where capital is actually rotating. Goods deflation of 0.1% monthly and services stickiness at 0.3% are old news. The real chart is semis diverging from the Nasdaq's 0.08% decline to 26,130.20.
The overlooked variable is semiconductor strength. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 0.2% to 11,611.24 with 19 of 30 constituents green, even as Nvidia fell 1.59%. Western Digital surged 4.02%, Seagate added 3.01%, and SanDisk rose 1.26%. Storage and memory are telling you something different from mega-cap AI.
The implication is clear: headline PCE at 3.7% year-over-year versus 3.6% expected matters less than where capital is actually rotating. Goods deflation of 0.1% monthly and services stickiness at 0.3% are old news. The real chart is semis diverging from the Nasdaq's 0.08% decline to 26,130.20.
