Nearly 12% — that's how much Intuit fell pre-market despite beating Q4 fiscal estimates, and almost nobody positioned for it. The common read is that earnings beats drive price. The overlooked variable is guidance: fiscal 2027 revenue and earnings projections fell significantly short of Wall Street forecasts, and the market repriced the entire growth trajectory in one session.
The pattern repeated across software. ServiceNow and Adobe each dropped about 2.5%, Salesforce fell 2.18%, Palantir slipped 1.07%. These weren't earnings misses — they were pre-market sentiment shifts ahead of Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 report and core PCE data.
The implication is precise: when forward guidance disappoints, the beat is noise. With core PCE YoY expected at 3.3% and Nvidia's Data Center revenue in focus, the market is pricing forward, not backward. Position for the guide, not the print.
The pattern repeated across software. ServiceNow and Adobe each dropped about 2.5%, Salesforce fell 2.18%, Palantir slipped 1.07%. These weren't earnings misses — they were pre-market sentiment shifts ahead of Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 report and core PCE data.
The implication is precise: when forward guidance disappoints, the beat is noise. With core PCE YoY expected at 3.3% and Nvidia's Data Center revenue in focus, the market is pricing forward, not backward. Position for the guide, not the print.
