#BitcoinFaces$6.4BOptionsExpiry
Polymarket Piles $59.7 Million Into Bitcoin’s Next Move
The biggest action sits on Polymarket, where nearly $59.7 million in volume has piled into contracts asking what price bitcoin will hit before the end of 2026. With bitcoin’s price recently trading above $75,000, traders give $85,000 a 69% probability, while the odds of touching $90,000 drop to 49%.
The betting gets colder fast as the targets move higher. Polymarket puts $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at 13%. A return to $150,000 gets just 4% odds, while moonshot targets of $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million command 2%, 1%, and 1%, respectively.
Polymarket's event "What price will bitcoin hit in 2026." Screenshot.
Some of the highest odds on Polymarket’s event “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026.” Screenshot taken on Aug. 26, 2026.
Those percentages are not Wall Street price targets pulled from a spreadsheet. Prediction market contracts trade around specific outcomes, and their prices reveal what participants are actually willing to risk on those events. Money moving in either direction constantly reprices the implied odds
Polymarket Piles $59.7 Million Into Bitcoin’s Next Move
The biggest action sits on Polymarket, where nearly $59.7 million in volume has piled into contracts asking what price bitcoin will hit before the end of 2026. With bitcoin’s price recently trading above $75,000, traders give $85,000 a 69% probability, while the odds of touching $90,000 drop to 49%.
The betting gets colder fast as the targets move higher. Polymarket puts $100,000 at 29%, $110,000 at 20%, and $120,000 at 13%. A return to $150,000 gets just 4% odds, while moonshot targets of $250,000, $500,000, and $1 million command 2%, 1%, and 1%, respectively.
Polymarket's event "What price will bitcoin hit in 2026." Screenshot.
Some of the highest odds on Polymarket’s event “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026.” Screenshot taken on Aug. 26, 2026.
Those percentages are not Wall Street price targets pulled from a spreadsheet. Prediction market contracts trade around specific outcomes, and their prices reveal what participants are actually willing to risk on those events. Money moving in either direction constantly reprices the implied odds
