yep
My latest 3-year correlation run shows the upstream drivers are visible but $BTC ’s beta rotates by regime.
63TD correlations:
Gold +0.55
DXY weakness +0.43
HY credit +0.38
VIX decline +0.34
NASDAQ +0.33
But over the latest 21TD, Gold jumped to +0.58 while NASDAQ fell to ~0.00. Gold now explains 35% of BTC variance and 91% of the macro-explained component.
BTC is still 61% idiosyncratic, so none of these variables “control” it.
That’s why I watch the chain upstream:
Treasury auctions → yields/curve → DXY/liquidity → BTC.
Right now, BTC is increasingly trading like scarce money, not simply leveraged tech.
My latest 3-year correlation run shows the upstream drivers are visible but $BTC ’s beta rotates by regime.
63TD correlations:
Gold +0.55
DXY weakness +0.43
HY credit +0.38
VIX decline +0.34
NASDAQ +0.33
But over the latest 21TD, Gold jumped to +0.58 while NASDAQ fell to ~0.00. Gold now explains 35% of BTC variance and 91% of the macro-explained component.
BTC is still 61% idiosyncratic, so none of these variables “control” it.
That’s why I watch the chain upstream:
Treasury auctions → yields/curve → DXY/liquidity → BTC.
Right now, BTC is increasingly trading like scarce money, not simply leveraged tech.
