US Data Dump: Liquidity Thesis Intact, Bonds Sell Off… Gold Does Too
Durable Goods, PCE, Personal Spending, GDP Price Index, Core PCE, Atlanta Fed GDPNow... the full battery hit.
No fresh evidence against the excess liquidity thesis. Pressure on yields continues across the entire curve, keeping the selloff in US Treasuries intact.
That’s fully aligned with my macro view.
The problem? Gold also sold off on the same data. Both assets moved in the same direction again.
I need a clean, sustained negative correlation between bonds and gold for the portfolio to work smoothly. We saw brief flashes of it recently, but today it vanished.
Waiting for real divergence.
Durable Goods, PCE, Personal Spending, GDP Price Index, Core PCE, Atlanta Fed GDPNow... the full battery hit.
No fresh evidence against the excess liquidity thesis. Pressure on yields continues across the entire curve, keeping the selloff in US Treasuries intact.
That’s fully aligned with my macro view.
The problem? Gold also sold off on the same data. Both assets moved in the same direction again.
I need a clean, sustained negative correlation between bonds and gold for the portfolio to work smoothly. We saw brief flashes of it recently, but today it vanished.
Waiting for real divergence.
