Bitcoin stalling at the 50-week Moving Average ($81,085) after a 30% rally was expected technical price action. First attempts at major weekly moving averages rarely clear immediately.

Key reasons bears and KOLs target $50K–$55K:

First-touch rejections at the 50-week MA often mark relief rallies (bear market rallies) within larger downtrends. Pushing to $81.2K swept short liquidity before finding institutional supply. Below $60K lies a high-volume support node where traders expect CME gap fills and a long-liquidation reset.

The counter-case rests on institutional flow. Spot ETFs logged $2.5B+ across a six-day inflow streak, providing actual spot demand beneath the market.

A pullback toward $70K–$72K tests local support; whether it devolves into a $50K flush depends on whether ETF buying continues.

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