Advanced packaging is becoming the real bottleneck in AI infrastructure — and the allocation game is shifting.
Morgan Stanley sees $NVDA's share of TSMC CoWoS capacity dropping from mid-50% in 2026 to ~45% in 2027. Meanwhile, $AMD is expected to nearly double its share from 9% to 20% over the same period.
But here's the important part: absolute demand for both is still surging. Nvidia's CoWoS wafer demand is projected up 57% YoY to 1.22M wafers in 2027. Total industry demand? Up 93% to 2.69M wafers.
The shift isn't about Nvidia slowing down. It's about AMD finally ramping MI400 AI GPUs and bringing CoWoS to Venice EPYC server CPUs for the first time. More players, same constrained resource.
TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains the choke point. Share is redistributing as more high-volume products qualify, but supply still can't keep up with demand.
This is the new supply chain reality: not just who gets the chips, but who gets access to the packaging that makes them work.
Morgan Stanley sees $NVDA's share of TSMC CoWoS capacity dropping from mid-50% in 2026 to ~45% in 2027. Meanwhile, $AMD is expected to nearly double its share from 9% to 20% over the same period.
But here's the important part: absolute demand for both is still surging. Nvidia's CoWoS wafer demand is projected up 57% YoY to 1.22M wafers in 2027. Total industry demand? Up 93% to 2.69M wafers.
The shift isn't about Nvidia slowing down. It's about AMD finally ramping MI400 AI GPUs and bringing CoWoS to Venice EPYC server CPUs for the first time. More players, same constrained resource.
TSMC's advanced packaging capacity remains the choke point. Share is redistributing as more high-volume products qualify, but supply still can't keep up with demand.
This is the new supply chain reality: not just who gets the chips, but who gets access to the packaging that makes them work.