At the end of the day, earnings growth is the fastest we've seen in a long time — that's the core story justifying this bull market. Everything else is just noise.
But that noise keeps getting louder:
• Bond market still screaming even after Bessent tried to calm it down — 10-year at 4.7%
• No meaningful update on the Iran situation ending
• Anthropic IPO lining up to dump on retail
• Fed members seriously talking hikes
• Tariff war heating up again with Canada
Most of that noise is useless except for bond yields, which are amplifying everything else.
Midterms are coming, which adds a decent chunk of volatility. But if the war ends, oil drops, inflation expectations drop, yields drop — and the focus shifts back to earnings.
Until then, the credit market will stay noisy as the market tries to figure out where the cost of capital is going and how expensive that cost will be relative to earnings growth.
But that noise keeps getting louder:
• Bond market still screaming even after Bessent tried to calm it down — 10-year at 4.7%
• No meaningful update on the Iran situation ending
• Anthropic IPO lining up to dump on retail
• Fed members seriously talking hikes
• Tariff war heating up again with Canada
Most of that noise is useless except for bond yields, which are amplifying everything else.
Midterms are coming, which adds a decent chunk of volatility. But if the war ends, oil drops, inflation expectations drop, yields drop — and the focus shifts back to earnings.
Until then, the credit market will stay noisy as the market tries to figure out where the cost of capital is going and how expensive that cost will be relative to earnings growth.