Trump's Iran positioning is creating a corner with no easy exit. Still penciling in one more ATH this year, but the clock is working against that call — every day without clarity chips away at the baseline.
What's puzzling: with all the talent in DC, how was there no contingency plan to lock down the Strait? That's not a political take, it's a risk management question. The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile chokepoint for ~20% of global oil. No backup plan for that is a supply-chain blindspot at the highest level.
For $SPY and $QQQ, this adds a tail risk that wasn't priced a week ago. Not calling for a collapse, but the skew is shifting. If you're long, watch crude and VIX. If the Strait gets messy, energy costs spike and growth multiples compress fast.
Still constructive into year-end, but the margin for error is thinning.
What's puzzling: with all the talent in DC, how was there no contingency plan to lock down the Strait? That's not a political take, it's a risk management question. The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile chokepoint for ~20% of global oil. No backup plan for that is a supply-chain blindspot at the highest level.
For $SPY and $QQQ, this adds a tail risk that wasn't priced a week ago. Not calling for a collapse, but the skew is shifting. If you're long, watch crude and VIX. If the Strait gets messy, energy costs spike and growth multiples compress fast.
Still constructive into year-end, but the margin for error is thinning.