US Treasury Bonds Face Key Week as Investors Await Bessent and Warsh
U.S. Treasury bonds rose at the start of the new week, and the week could be pivotal for the bond market. According to Sina Finance, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are scheduled to speak this week, and their remarks may determine the next move in yields.
After sharp volatility last week, yields across maturities generally fell on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 3 basis points to 4.71%, while the 30-year yield fell about 3 basis points to 5.24%.
Investors are focused on what Bessent will do next after he unexpectedly announced expanded buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries last week. They are now seeking details of the “fiscal measures” he previously mentioned, which Bessent said are intended to address the U.S. budget deficit.
Warsh is also in focus. He is set to deliver the keynote speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. With inflation still well above target and Bessent trying to push down long-term financing costs, markets want to know how the Fed will handle the relationship between the two.
New York Mellon Bank senior market strategist Yu Xiuyuan said the market will wait this week for Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair. He added that long-dated bonds remain highly sensitive and investors want to know how the Fed will respond to Treasury Department actions.
Yu also said Wednesday’s July personal consumption expenditures data will be important. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline PCE inflation to ease slightly to 3.6% from 3.7% in the previous month, while core PCE is expected to remain at 3.3%.
Longer-dated Treasury yields briefly fell to intraday lows after media reports said the U.S. Treasury may use its general account to fund bond buybacks. In 2015, the Treasury set a policy requiring the account to hold at least five days of spending, or at least $150 billion, to guard against sudden market disruptions that could prevent the Treasury from borrowing in the bond market.
Although Treasury yields edged lower on Monday, they remained near the levels seen when the Treasury announced its intervention last week, suggesting the department is unhappy with current borrowing costs. One of Bessent’s key tasks when appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump was to help push down Treasury yields as annual U.S. interest expenses exceed $1 trillion.