Ten firms announced $370B in buybacks this year. Equal-weighted, they lagged $SPY.
Measured from each announcement close through Friday, against $SPY over the same window.
Average total return +8.26%. Average excess return -0.80%.
The average is noise. Look at the spread.
$QCOM +8.01% excess. $V +12.37%. $AAPL +7.46%.
$WMT -28.82%. $MS -7.00%. $C -2.68%.
A forty-one point gap between best and worst, on the same signal.
Size didn't predict anything. $AAPL's $100B, the largest of the year, returned less excess than $QCOM's $20B.
Two of them are down more than 21% on the calendar year while showing gains since announcement. $CRM and $ADBE both announced into weakness. The buyback didn't cause the recovery. It followed the decline.
Ten observations across holding periods from 58 to 203 days, so treat this as a description rather than a study.
A buyback announcement tells you what management thinks about the price. It does not tell you what the price does next.
Measured from each announcement close through Friday, against $SPY over the same window.
Average total return +8.26%. Average excess return -0.80%.
The average is noise. Look at the spread.
$QCOM +8.01% excess. $V +12.37%. $AAPL +7.46%.
$WMT -28.82%. $MS -7.00%. $C -2.68%.
A forty-one point gap between best and worst, on the same signal.
Size didn't predict anything. $AAPL's $100B, the largest of the year, returned less excess than $QCOM's $20B.
Two of them are down more than 21% on the calendar year while showing gains since announcement. $CRM and $ADBE both announced into weakness. The buyback didn't cause the recovery. It followed the decline.
Ten observations across holding periods from 58 to 203 days, so treat this as a description rather than a study.
A buyback announcement tells you what management thinks about the price. It does not tell you what the price does next.
