Every strong move hits a point where psychology flips.
Early entries start thinking: "Good run. Time to cool off. Surely we retrace." They take profits — fine, that's their call.
But here's the trap: they take profits early, then expect a retrace just because it feels right.
$BTC is still 65% below ATH. Everything under that ATH is still a dip in the bigger picture.
Here's how it usually plays out:
Longs close and book gains. Shorts — already wrecked on the way up — revenge short because "it has to pull back." Market doesn't give them the retrace. Instead, it grinds higher. More shorts pile in. They get squeezed again.
Meanwhile, the early sellers watch it climb without them. FOMO hits. They buy back at worse prices, often right into a local top — instead of holding their original entries from below.
That's the irony of a bull market. Everyone looks like they're winning, but psychologically, most are losing the whole way up.
Some take profits too early.
Some short every dip.
Some stay fixated on lower targets.
Some refuse to flip their bias because admitting they were wrong is harder than letting go of the original thesis.
So they short the entire move, get squeezed repeatedly, and only turn bullish after the market has already ripped.
That's why I'm not taking profits just because it feels like we should retrace.
I'd rather stay positioned and let the market prove me wrong than try to predict where the "cooldown" is supposed to happen.
In a bull market, the biggest risk isn't being too bullish.
Sometimes, it's closing a winning position too soon.
Early entries start thinking: "Good run. Time to cool off. Surely we retrace." They take profits — fine, that's their call.
But here's the trap: they take profits early, then expect a retrace just because it feels right.
$BTC is still 65% below ATH. Everything under that ATH is still a dip in the bigger picture.
Here's how it usually plays out:
Longs close and book gains. Shorts — already wrecked on the way up — revenge short because "it has to pull back." Market doesn't give them the retrace. Instead, it grinds higher. More shorts pile in. They get squeezed again.
Meanwhile, the early sellers watch it climb without them. FOMO hits. They buy back at worse prices, often right into a local top — instead of holding their original entries from below.
That's the irony of a bull market. Everyone looks like they're winning, but psychologically, most are losing the whole way up.
Some take profits too early.
Some short every dip.
Some stay fixated on lower targets.
Some refuse to flip their bias because admitting they were wrong is harder than letting go of the original thesis.
So they short the entire move, get squeezed repeatedly, and only turn bullish after the market has already ripped.
That's why I'm not taking profits just because it feels like we should retrace.
I'd rather stay positioned and let the market prove me wrong than try to predict where the "cooldown" is supposed to happen.
In a bull market, the biggest risk isn't being too bullish.
Sometimes, it's closing a winning position too soon.