The key is whether $0.029 actually holds on a daily close, not just an intraday wick.
The tape suggests $0.0355 is the nearer support zone, with deeper structure around $0.0288 so $0.029 is a critical pivot rather than an arbitrary line.
If buyers defend it, the downside thesis weakens considerably. Lose it with volume, and $0.017 becomes much more realistic.
I've been treating that support-loss confirmation as the real trigger, not the first wick below it.
The tape suggests $0.0355 is the nearer support zone, with deeper structure around $0.0288 so $0.029 is a critical pivot rather than an arbitrary line.
If buyers defend it, the downside thesis weakens considerably. Lose it with volume, and $0.017 becomes much more realistic.
I've been treating that support-loss confirmation as the real trigger, not the first wick below it.