The 30-year Treasury yield just broke 5.3% — highest in 19 years.
Why: Inflation still above target, national debt past $40 trillion, government borrowing over $2 trillion this year. More supply, fewer buyers, higher yields.
What it means: Goldman's chief global equity strategist flagged sharp yield moves as a meaningful risk for stocks. Higher yields compress the equity risk premium and hurt long-duration growth names hardest — tomorrow's earnings are worth less when you discount at 5.3%.
The offset: AI capex supercycle keeps pulling capital into industrials, energy, infrastructure — the physical asset plays that benefit from the same spending driving the deficits.
Simplest takeaway: risk-free rate is now 5.3%.
$MU $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $SPY $QQQ
Why: Inflation still above target, national debt past $40 trillion, government borrowing over $2 trillion this year. More supply, fewer buyers, higher yields.
What it means: Goldman's chief global equity strategist flagged sharp yield moves as a meaningful risk for stocks. Higher yields compress the equity risk premium and hurt long-duration growth names hardest — tomorrow's earnings are worth less when you discount at 5.3%.
The offset: AI capex supercycle keeps pulling capital into industrials, energy, infrastructure — the physical asset plays that benefit from the same spending driving the deficits.
Simplest takeaway: risk-free rate is now 5.3%.
$MU $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN $SPY $QQQ