Nasdaq 100 down 2.4% this week—even after Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks, a move that should've been supportive.
Instead, the macro cross-currents are wild: gold ripped 5.5%, commodities ($GNX) up 4.5%, $UUP (dollar index) fell 0.75%, and $TNX (10-year yield) closed at 4.738%.
That's a messy setup. Bonds didn't rally despite the buyback surprise, gold and commodities are bid, and the dollar's weakening. This divergence suggests the market's pricing in either fiscal concerns, stagflation risk, or a loss of confidence in the Treasury playbook.
For equities, especially tech, this is a headwind. Rising real rates + weak dollar + commodity strength = margin pressure and multiple compression.
Buckle up is right. If yields keep climbing while growth slows, we're not in a soft-landing setup anymore.
Instead, the macro cross-currents are wild: gold ripped 5.5%, commodities ($GNX) up 4.5%, $UUP (dollar index) fell 0.75%, and $TNX (10-year yield) closed at 4.738%.
That's a messy setup. Bonds didn't rally despite the buyback surprise, gold and commodities are bid, and the dollar's weakening. This divergence suggests the market's pricing in either fiscal concerns, stagflation risk, or a loss of confidence in the Treasury playbook.
For equities, especially tech, this is a headwind. Rising real rates + weak dollar + commodity strength = margin pressure and multiple compression.
Buckle up is right. If yields keep climbing while growth slows, we're not in a soft-landing setup anymore.