keep thinking about what happens to a @TermMax pool right after a big batch of positions matures, not before.
most people focus on maturity as an exit point for the individual lender, but I think the more interesting question is what it does to the pool itself in that window.
when a large chunk of fixed rate debt matures around the same time, the pool's utilization can drop fast repaid capital sits there uncommitted until new borrowers show up t0 take the other side. it is a bit like a hotel with a bunch of checkouts on the same day and no guarantee the rooms fill back up that afternoon.
that gap is fine, honestly, but it means the fixed rate on a fresh position right after a big maturity wave might look more attractive than it would in a steadier market, just because utilization temporarily dipped.
a rate that looks generous right after a maturity spike might just be idle capital talking, not real demand.
not sure how visible that pattern actually is unless you're watching utilization around specific maturity dates rather than just checking the rate on any given day...
anyone tracking whether TermMax rates cluster differently right after big maturity clusters, or is that too small an effect to matter?
#termmax
most people focus on maturity as an exit point for the individual lender, but I think the more interesting question is what it does to the pool itself in that window.
when a large chunk of fixed rate debt matures around the same time, the pool's utilization can drop fast repaid capital sits there uncommitted until new borrowers show up t0 take the other side. it is a bit like a hotel with a bunch of checkouts on the same day and no guarantee the rooms fill back up that afternoon.
that gap is fine, honestly, but it means the fixed rate on a fresh position right after a big maturity wave might look more attractive than it would in a steadier market, just because utilization temporarily dipped.
a rate that looks generous right after a maturity spike might just be idle capital talking, not real demand.
not sure how visible that pattern actually is unless you're watching utilization around specific maturity dates rather than just checking the rate on any given day...
anyone tracking whether TermMax rates cluster differently right after big maturity clusters, or is that too small an effect to matter?
#termmax
