#termmax @TermMax I was checking TermMax eligibility numbers and kept switching between the 30,000 and 50,000-user cases. The same pool can look generous at one threshold and thin very fast once more wallets qualify.

That is the hidden tension. TermMax wants sticky capital and real fixed-rate borrowers, but a large TMX distribution can reward people whose strongest incentive appears right before TGE, not after it. Activity and quality are not the same thing.

The sell-pressure story is also usually simplified too much. “15% allocated” tells me little unless I know the claim rate and, after claiming, the sell rate. Allocation × claim rate × sell rate is the number that actually matters.

I see a similar issue on the lending side. Fixed rates are useful only when borrowers value certainty enough to pay a premium over floating APR. If variable rates barely move, adoption may stay weak. If APR swings 5%, suddenly a few hundred basis points for certainty can look rational.

Then there is the 120-minute post-maturity window. Fine in normal conditions, maybe less fine during congestion.

What I am watching is whether TermMax rewards durable use, or temporarily rents attention.
@TermMax #termmax