$SPY opened at $764.99, up 0.31%. Overnight repair fired again — seventh time in eight sessions. Same pattern: afternoon deterioration, then overnight fix.
The gamma surface improved:
• GEX moved from -$1.42B to -$1.09B
• Flip dropped from $769 to $763
• Cushion flipped from -$4.82 to +$2.28
• Call premium restored to 66%
Skew still inverted at -0.27%. Seventh inversion in eight sessions. The signal won't die.
Monthly OPEX today strips 17.4% of total OI — the largest roll since we started tracking. -$219M of negative gamma expires at 4PM. When negative gamma rolls off, the surface gets LESS negative. This helps. The -$1.09B surface should lighten by Monday.
The $765 strike carries -$409M, much of it expiring today. The cliff that fired yesterday should thin significantly after the close.
Price is sandwiched between two walls:
• Above: $770 (+$59M), $772 (+$39M), $775 (+$41M) — thin magnets, not the +$500M anchors from two weeks ago
• Below: $760 (-$257M) — the accelerator that aligns with the bull flag stop at $760.52. $4.47 away, 0.6%. If $760 fires, the stop triggers and the falling wedge breakout at $751.72 becomes the floor
The bull flag stop at $760.52 is the tightest test yet for the 7/7 STRONG pattern (93% success). It survived Monday through Thursday. OPEX may save it — the negative gamma rolling off at $765 removes the accelerator pressure pushing toward the stop.
ATH drawdown: $779.30 to $764.99 = -1.84%. The 3% level is $755.92. Falling wedge breakout is $751.72. Dark pool floor is $745. All three are below 3% and above the wedge invalidation at $708.87. The layered support stack holds.
$NVDA earnings in 5 trading days.
$763 is the flip. $764.99 is price. $760 is the stop. $770 is the magnet. $789 is the target.
Monthly OPEX strips the cliff. Overnight repaired the structure. Five days to the catalyst.
The gamma surface improved:
• GEX moved from -$1.42B to -$1.09B
• Flip dropped from $769 to $763
• Cushion flipped from -$4.82 to +$2.28
• Call premium restored to 66%
Skew still inverted at -0.27%. Seventh inversion in eight sessions. The signal won't die.
Monthly OPEX today strips 17.4% of total OI — the largest roll since we started tracking. -$219M of negative gamma expires at 4PM. When negative gamma rolls off, the surface gets LESS negative. This helps. The -$1.09B surface should lighten by Monday.
The $765 strike carries -$409M, much of it expiring today. The cliff that fired yesterday should thin significantly after the close.
Price is sandwiched between two walls:
• Above: $770 (+$59M), $772 (+$39M), $775 (+$41M) — thin magnets, not the +$500M anchors from two weeks ago
• Below: $760 (-$257M) — the accelerator that aligns with the bull flag stop at $760.52. $4.47 away, 0.6%. If $760 fires, the stop triggers and the falling wedge breakout at $751.72 becomes the floor
The bull flag stop at $760.52 is the tightest test yet for the 7/7 STRONG pattern (93% success). It survived Monday through Thursday. OPEX may save it — the negative gamma rolling off at $765 removes the accelerator pressure pushing toward the stop.
ATH drawdown: $779.30 to $764.99 = -1.84%. The 3% level is $755.92. Falling wedge breakout is $751.72. Dark pool floor is $745. All three are below 3% and above the wedge invalidation at $708.87. The layered support stack holds.
$NVDA earnings in 5 trading days.
$763 is the flip. $764.99 is price. $760 is the stop. $770 is the magnet. $789 is the target.
Monthly OPEX strips the cliff. Overnight repaired the structure. Five days to the catalyst.