The U.S. government is likely to enter a shutdown starting Saturday morning unless the House of Representatives passes a funding bill, underscoring the importance of precise contract definitions in prediction markets. Contracts on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to wager on whether a government shutdown will occur, with implied probabilities ranging from 88% to 93%. These elevated odds highlight differences in how each platform defines and operationalizes the concept of a “government shutdown.”

$BTC Down, $XAU down, the whole market is going down this weekend!