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🚨🚨 With expectations of rate hikes receding, why on earth are long-term yields rising? 🚨

​US stocks have taken a fair bit of a beating this week

​ S&P 500 & Nasdaq are down
US 30-year treasury yield hovering near 5.25%
Crude oil sitting in the $90s
Walmart down by roughly 9%
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $70,000 mark

​What’s fascinating is that this isn't a simple case of "risk-off" sentiment

​The VIX sits in the 16s, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 52 (Neutral). Appetite for high-yield bonds remains remarkably sturdy, and capital is actively flowing into crypto

According to FedWatch, a pause in September is the favored outcome at 65.4%. Yet, despite that, long-term yields keep climbing

​Underneath the bonnet, this is being driven by US national debt hitting the $40 trillion mark, massive private sector demand for capital (including AI investments), and inflationary pressure from elevated oil prices

​What’s shifting in the market right now is that we may no longer be in an environment focused purely on the "Fed’s policy rate." Instead, long-term yields themselves are becoming the primary anchor for equity valuations 📢

#FedRateDecisions #USGovernment #Market_Update

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