24h Check #10 · ETH
Original read: upside continuation. Move evidence: +0.28% over the latest 24h window. Volume evidence: $284.4M quote volume.
Confirmation required acceptance above 1911. Invalidation: a 1h close below 1911.
Result: MISS. Return +8.77%; MFE n/a; MAE 10.29%.
The fixed-horizon close does not support the stated direction. MFE and MAE retain the path risk instead of hiding the route to the miss.
For the next read, was level acceptance or persistent volume more informative?
$ETH $BTC
Original read: upside continuation. Move evidence: +0.28% over the latest 24h window. Volume evidence: $284.4M quote volume.
Confirmation required acceptance above 1911. Invalidation: a 1h close below 1911.
Result: MISS. Return +8.77%; MFE n/a; MAE 10.29%.
The fixed-horizon close does not support the stated direction. MFE and MAE retain the path risk instead of hiding the route to the miss.
For the next read, was level acceptance or persistent volume more informative?
$ETH $BTC