One framework that keeps coming back to me: Stage Analysis.
It's simple but surprisingly effective for avoiding stupid mistakes.
Stage 1 → Accumulation. Build positions here.
Stage 2 → Markup. Ride the momentum.
Stage 3 → Distribution. Lock in gains, don't get greedy.
Stage 4 → Decline. Stay out. Seriously.
Most losses happen because people ignore Stage 3 warnings or chase Stage 4 hoping for a bounce.
This isn't about predicting tops or bottoms. It's about recognizing where you are in the cycle and acting accordingly.
Keep this mental model close. You'll reference it more than you expect.
It's simple but surprisingly effective for avoiding stupid mistakes.
Stage 1 → Accumulation. Build positions here.
Stage 2 → Markup. Ride the momentum.
Stage 3 → Distribution. Lock in gains, don't get greedy.
Stage 4 → Decline. Stay out. Seriously.
Most losses happen because people ignore Stage 3 warnings or chase Stage 4 hoping for a bounce.
This isn't about predicting tops or bottoms. It's about recognizing where you are in the cycle and acting accordingly.
Keep this mental model close. You'll reference it more than you expect.