I caught myself doing something I probably shouldn’t do: looking at TermMax’s TVL and immediately treating it as evidence of demand. The number tells me capital arrived😊, but it says nothing about what brought it there. Once I separated the incentives, the picture became less obvious.
The roughly 50% APY has a clear economic meaning to me. I can think about the target price, maturity, expected return, and the possibility of settlement. But the 60x AP multiplier creates a different reason to participate. Someone can deposit without having much conviction about the underlying trade, simply because the snapshot and points make the opportunity attractive.
That distinction matters because the capital may behave differently later. If the reward disappears, the yield-seeking user might stay while the points-seeking user moves on. So when I look at TVL, I’m trying not to confuse capital that uses the product with capital that is temporarily renting the incentives.
I keep thinking about borrowing too. Lenders provide the liquidity, but borrowers are what turn that liquidity into actual financial activity. If TVL is high while active borrowing is much smaller, I want to understand the reason for that gap rather than automatically calling it strength.
Maybe the unused liquidity is healthy. Maybe it is simply waiting for demand. I don’t know yet.
That’s why the period after the TMX TGE interests me. When the 60x effect fades, the behavior should become easier to read. Who stays? Who still borrows? Who still supplies capital?
I’m not confident enough to call the answer. I’m still watching, and I’d rather admit that than force a conclusion the data hasn’t earned.
#termmax @TermMax
$MORPHO $RE $ORDI
The roughly 50% APY has a clear economic meaning to me. I can think about the target price, maturity, expected return, and the possibility of settlement. But the 60x AP multiplier creates a different reason to participate. Someone can deposit without having much conviction about the underlying trade, simply because the snapshot and points make the opportunity attractive.
That distinction matters because the capital may behave differently later. If the reward disappears, the yield-seeking user might stay while the points-seeking user moves on. So when I look at TVL, I’m trying not to confuse capital that uses the product with capital that is temporarily renting the incentives.
I keep thinking about borrowing too. Lenders provide the liquidity, but borrowers are what turn that liquidity into actual financial activity. If TVL is high while active borrowing is much smaller, I want to understand the reason for that gap rather than automatically calling it strength.
Maybe the unused liquidity is healthy. Maybe it is simply waiting for demand. I don’t know yet.
That’s why the period after the TMX TGE interests me. When the 60x effect fades, the behavior should become easier to read. Who stays? Who still borrows? Who still supplies capital?
I’m not confident enough to call the answer. I’m still watching, and I’d rather admit that than force a conclusion the data hasn’t earned.
#termmax @TermMax
$MORPHO $RE $ORDI