Bessent's Treasury buyback move yesterday isn't doing much — basically a pseudo-QE attempt that's landing flat.
Oil's the real problem right now. Up 4% today, sitting at $87/barrel. That's the choke point for the whole inflation trade.
Until crude rolls over, inflation expectations stay sticky. And until inflation expectations ease, bond buyers stay on the sidelines. No bid in bonds means yields stay elevated, which keeps the equity multiple compressed.
The path to lower yields runs through the oil market first. Right now, that path is blocked.
Oil's the real problem right now. Up 4% today, sitting at $87/barrel. That's the choke point for the whole inflation trade.
Until crude rolls over, inflation expectations stay sticky. And until inflation expectations ease, bond buyers stay on the sidelines. No bid in bonds means yields stay elevated, which keeps the equity multiple compressed.
The path to lower yields runs through the oil market first. Right now, that path is blocked.