The SOFI stock price in 10 years depends on one number nobody quotes
Everyone models revenue. Revenue was never the constraint.
For a lender, value is book value per share times the multiple paid for it. Tangible book ended Q1 at $7.21. ROTCE is running near 7% against a stated 20-30% target.
That metric sets the multiple. Around 7% the market pays book. In the low twenties, three or four times it. The whole ten year range sits between those, and member growth changes none of it.
Credit is the risk nobody models. This book has not been through a downturn, and Q2 provisions rose 37% off a low base.
Price around $18 now. The all-time high was $32.73 last November against a low of $4.24 in December 2022, which shows what a normal range looks like.
My short-term exposure is a perp on Bitunix, not shares. Derivative, funding while held, low leverage because liquidation risk is real on a beta above 2.
Ten year views belong in shares. Just my read, results are not assured.
Everyone models revenue. Revenue was never the constraint.
For a lender, value is book value per share times the multiple paid for it. Tangible book ended Q1 at $7.21. ROTCE is running near 7% against a stated 20-30% target.
That metric sets the multiple. Around 7% the market pays book. In the low twenties, three or four times it. The whole ten year range sits between those, and member growth changes none of it.
Credit is the risk nobody models. This book has not been through a downturn, and Q2 provisions rose 37% off a low base.
Price around $18 now. The all-time high was $32.73 last November against a low of $4.24 in December 2022, which shows what a normal range looks like.
My short-term exposure is a perp on Bitunix, not shares. Derivative, funding while held, low leverage because liquidation risk is real on a beta above 2.
Ten year views belong in shares. Just my read, results are not assured.