US just bought back $2B of its own bonds to "stabilize" the market
then borrowed $60B more the same day
the dollar dropped 1% anyway
if it keeps sliding toward 85, you import inflation through oil prices — because oil is priced in the thing you're diluting
people say "rates were higher in 1981" to calm you down
sure, 13.9% back then
but debt was 30% of GDP and cost 2% to service
today the pile is the largest in history and costs 3.25% of output
the rate was never the issue
the size is
JPM also flagged Hormuz risk + El Niño hitting food and fertilizer into 2027
oil at $100 puts 45M more people into food insecurity
this isn't a bond market problem
it's an arithmetic problem
then borrowed $60B more the same day
the dollar dropped 1% anyway
if it keeps sliding toward 85, you import inflation through oil prices — because oil is priced in the thing you're diluting
people say "rates were higher in 1981" to calm you down
sure, 13.9% back then
but debt was 30% of GDP and cost 2% to service
today the pile is the largest in history and costs 3.25% of output
the rate was never the issue
the size is
JPM also flagged Hormuz risk + El Niño hitting food and fertilizer into 2027
oil at $100 puts 45M more people into food insecurity
this isn't a bond market problem
it's an arithmetic problem