It jumped up by $5k in an hour!
IS THE BOTTOM IN??
That’s the big question on everyone’s mind.
$BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k.
In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again?
Bulls will state that past behavior isn’t a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? It’s possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary.
We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldn’t rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable.
However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so it’s not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though.
Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out.
The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already.
With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much.
My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it).
Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing?
I’ve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come.
One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k.
But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*.
Credit: @collin
