VanEck: Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its correction — here’s what to watch Investment firm VanEck says Bitcoin’s downturn could be winding down. According to the firm, 8 of 12 capitulation signals have already fired, and long-term holders (LTHs) surrendered roughly 356,000 BTC over the past month. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has remained largely flat during that period, a pattern VanEck interprets as potential evidence that the market is bottoming. What the data shows - Capitulation signals: VanEck tracks a set of capitulation indicators; two-thirds have now triggered, which historically can mark late-stage weakness. - Long-term holder selling: LTHs offloaded about 356,000 BTC in the last month, suggesting distribution among longer-term investors. - Price action: Despite that selling, BTC’s price has been relatively stable month-over-month — a sign that supply may be getting absorbed. Why the pullback happened Bitcoin fell back earlier this year after peaking at $126,080 in October 2025. The pullback is attributed to heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions that pushed risk-averse investors toward safe havens like gold. Those same forces tend to sap appetite for high-volatility assets such as crypto. The four-year cycle narrative BTC has historically posted major highs on an approximate four-year cadence (2017, 2021, 2025). Many market participants expect that pattern to persist, which frames expectations for a new all-time high in 2029. Under that scenario, a new bullish leg could begin as early as 2027 — meaning the current bear phase could be approaching its end if past cycles repeat. Macro backdrop to watch Inflation trends matter. US CPI readings have been easing, and if inflation continues toward the Fed’s 2% goal, the Federal Reserve could eventually cut interest rates. Lower rates typically boost risk-on asset flows, which could benefit Bitcoin. Bottom line VanEck’s signals and the recent LTH selling suggest capitulation may be occurring, and flat price action amid heavy selling can be an encouraging sign for bulls. Still, macro risks and geopolitical uncertainties remain, so while indicators point to a possible bottom, cautious positioning and continued monitoring of macro and on-chain signals remain prudent before declaring a full-scale bullish thesis. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news