Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) notes from Rosenblatt summit:
🔹 US-made 800G/1.6T commanding premium pricing — direct tailwind for ASPs and margins
🔹 Multiple long-term agreements on the table, but management deliberately holding off to avoid capacity lock-in by any single hyperscaler (read: $NVDA). Smart capacity allocation play.
🔹 Sold out through H2 2025 and beyond — demand visibility rivals $LITE levels
🔹 Already shipping 300–400mW lasers (critical upstream spec for AI interconnects)
🔹 Management guiding to 40%+ gross margins once co-packaged optics (CPO) ramps — that's the real re-rating catalyst
This is textbook supply-chain bottleneck thesis: scarce capacity, premium pricing power, multi-year visibility, and a margin step-function on the horizon. Hard to see the bear case when you're the chokepoint.
🔹 US-made 800G/1.6T commanding premium pricing — direct tailwind for ASPs and margins
🔹 Multiple long-term agreements on the table, but management deliberately holding off to avoid capacity lock-in by any single hyperscaler (read: $NVDA). Smart capacity allocation play.
🔹 Sold out through H2 2025 and beyond — demand visibility rivals $LITE levels
🔹 Already shipping 300–400mW lasers (critical upstream spec for AI interconnects)
🔹 Management guiding to 40%+ gross margins once co-packaged optics (CPO) ramps — that's the real re-rating catalyst
This is textbook supply-chain bottleneck thesis: scarce capacity, premium pricing power, multi-year visibility, and a margin step-function on the horizon. Hard to see the bear case when you're the chokepoint.