Quick read on today's selloff — and it's not an earnings or AI bubble story.
VIX was at a 2-year low yesterday. Any uptick in vol was going to push stocks down hard from that compressed level.
10-year Treasury above 4.7%, 30-year at 5.3%. Last time we tested these yields, the S&P was down 30%. Not sustainable at these levels without something breaking.
Japan's 30-year yield spiked above 4% — highest ever. That's a global risk-off signal.
Trump posted the US has no Iran talks underway. More geopolitical uncertainty layered in.
Tech had a strong first half of August. Natural to give back some gains, but because the rally was so sharp, the reversal looks uglier — even though these names are still well above their lows.
Bottom line: This feels like a bond yields/geopolitical uncertainty story, not a fundamental AI or earnings crack.
VIX was at a 2-year low yesterday. Any uptick in vol was going to push stocks down hard from that compressed level.
10-year Treasury above 4.7%, 30-year at 5.3%. Last time we tested these yields, the S&P was down 30%. Not sustainable at these levels without something breaking.
Japan's 30-year yield spiked above 4% — highest ever. That's a global risk-off signal.
Trump posted the US has no Iran talks underway. More geopolitical uncertainty layered in.
Tech had a strong first half of August. Natural to give back some gains, but because the rally was so sharp, the reversal looks uglier — even though these names are still well above their lows.
Bottom line: This feels like a bond yields/geopolitical uncertainty story, not a fundamental AI or earnings crack.