Calendar:

July Housing Starts data - Tuesday
July Pending Home Sales data - Tuesday
Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday 🚨
August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
August S&P Global Services PMI data - Friday
August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data - Friday

Main Events:

• $BTC hovered around $62,800-$63,500 as Strategy's Michael Saylor called it 'digital monetary energy,' while broader crypto sentiment stayed cautious with XRP slipping below $1 support twice this month.

• Soft US retail sales (-0.6% in July, biggest drop since May), cooling inflation, and a dip in consumer sentiment (51 vs 55.2) have traders slashing odds of a September Fed hike to roughly 30-35%. $EUR /USD firmed toward 1.1569 and GBP/USD hit a three-month high as the dollar broadly softened.

• WTI crude eased slightly to around $81-82 as US-Iran peace talks stalled and Hormuz Strait tanker traffic slowed, keeping geopolitical risk premiums embedded in prices. Brent still gained over 5% last week after tanker and refinery attacks, and the deadline for a US-Iran nuclear deal passed unmet on Monday.

• Gold extended gains near one-week highs as fading Fed hike expectations undermined the dollar, though it struggled to decisively clear the $4,400 resistance level. Persistent Middle East uncertainty and Treasury Secretary Bessent's warning of severe new Iran sanctions kept safe-haven demand supported.

• CoreWeave jumped 19.28% and Nebius soared 34.14% following standout quarterly results, underscoring continued investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure plays. Semiconductor rotation also continued as hedge funds piled into Taiwan Semiconductor (+41% YTD) while dumping Broadcom (-8% weekly).

• The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 7,798.99 last week, up 13.7% year-to-date, as markets look ahead to FOMC minutes, retail earnings from Walmart and other big-box retailers, and housing data this week. Futures were mixed Monday, with Nasdaq and S&P edging higher while Dow futures slipped.

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