When a World Cup goal drops, it's not just the match odds that flip.
We tracked 95 major repricing events across 608 linked markets (June 11-July 4). Here's what moves when a match line shifts 10¢+:
Group winner: 80% co-move (vs 8.4% baseline 24h prior)
Progression markets: 49.5% (vs 13.7% baseline)
Top scorer: 15.8% (vs 4.2%)
Tournament winner: 9.8% (vs 0.6%)
Magnitude drops hard too. Median move is 63.3¢ on same-match lines, but only 0.2¢ on the title market.
The baseline comparison kills the noise argument. This is pure shock propagation, not random drift.
One event ripples through the entire market tree, but almost nothing reaches the top.
All frequencies and magnitudes. No directional bias. No predictions.
Data via Vera.
We tracked 95 major repricing events across 608 linked markets (June 11-July 4). Here's what moves when a match line shifts 10¢+:
Group winner: 80% co-move (vs 8.4% baseline 24h prior)
Progression markets: 49.5% (vs 13.7% baseline)
Top scorer: 15.8% (vs 4.2%)
Tournament winner: 9.8% (vs 0.6%)
Magnitude drops hard too. Median move is 63.3¢ on same-match lines, but only 0.2¢ on the title market.
The baseline comparison kills the noise argument. This is pure shock propagation, not random drift.
One event ripples through the entire market tree, but almost nothing reaches the top.
All frequencies and magnitudes. No directional bias. No predictions.
Data via Vera.