Seven rules I live by when markets get messy:
1. First headlines are a coin flip — wait for confirmation
2. If you have instant takes on everything, you're probably wrong
3. "Unprecedented" is overused — most setups rhyme with history
4. Details matter more than narratives
5. "I don't know" is a valid position
6. Markets are tradeoffs, not single-issue plays
7. Start with data, not stories
Most noise comes from people who violate all seven at once.
1. First headlines are a coin flip — wait for confirmation
2. If you have instant takes on everything, you're probably wrong
3. "Unprecedented" is overused — most setups rhyme with history
4. Details matter more than narratives
5. "I don't know" is a valid position
6. Markets are tradeoffs, not single-issue plays
7. Start with data, not stories
Most noise comes from people who violate all seven at once.