BOJ rate hike odds for September just hit 73% on Polymarket. 3 weeks ago? Under 40%.
Yet $USDJPY still sitting at 159.
Same prediction market shows:
• Sub-150 by year-end: 35% (shrinking)
• 165 breakout: 39.5% (higher probability)
Market's pricing in the hike but yen keeps bleeding. Rate hike narrative already baked in, yet sellers dominate.
Is the yen weakness structural at this point? Or are we setting up for a violent snap back once positioning gets too crowded?
Yet $USDJPY still sitting at 159.
Same prediction market shows:
• Sub-150 by year-end: 35% (shrinking)
• 165 breakout: 39.5% (higher probability)
Market's pricing in the hike but yen keeps bleeding. Rate hike narrative already baked in, yet sellers dominate.
Is the yen weakness structural at this point? Or are we setting up for a violent snap back once positioning gets too crowded?