Funny how everyone ditched M2 because they were staring at it on the LTF.
I called this at 120K. When a macro top is forming, do you really think the stars are going to line up perfectly for a short? They won’t. Delayed correlations exist specifically to mess up your timing.
M2 works, you just used it incorrectly. As we approach a macro top, there’s a fresh influx of liquidity. Everyone thinks, “OMG, money entering markets, price goes up.”
Wrong. That’s exit liquidity.
In every cycle, $BTC has topped before M2. By the time M2 actually peaks, BTC is already down 30–40% based on prior cycles.
That’s exactly what happened this cycle. I pointed it out well before the drop, which is why I was already scaling into shorts. When M2 finally starts cooling, you get an acceleration of the downtrend,just like every other cycle from a macro point of interest.
The HTF is king. Yes, cycles will eventually decouple, but it won’t be this time.
I called this at 120K. When a macro top is forming, do you really think the stars are going to line up perfectly for a short? They won’t. Delayed correlations exist specifically to mess up your timing.
M2 works, you just used it incorrectly. As we approach a macro top, there’s a fresh influx of liquidity. Everyone thinks, “OMG, money entering markets, price goes up.”
Wrong. That’s exit liquidity.
In every cycle, $BTC has topped before M2. By the time M2 actually peaks, BTC is already down 30–40% based on prior cycles.
That’s exactly what happened this cycle. I pointed it out well before the drop, which is why I was already scaling into shorts. When M2 finally starts cooling, you get an acceleration of the downtrend,just like every other cycle from a macro point of interest.
The HTF is king. Yes, cycles will eventually decouple, but it won’t be this time.
