This next Week Could Decide the Next Move
Three major data points land within 72 hours and hit markets from different angles.
> Monday · 4:00 PM ET · US Foreign Portfolio Flows (TIC data)
Focus: Whether Japan and China continued selling U.S. Treasuries. Persistent official outflows would keep pressure on the dollar and long-end yields.
> Wednesday · 2:00 PM ET · FOMC Minutes (July meeting)
Watch for the balance of opinion. More members pushing for rate cuts would support risk assets. Dominant inflation concerns would lean hawkish and pressure risk-off positioning.
> Thursday/Friday · Japan CPI
A hotter-than-expected print raises the odds of a Bank of Japan hike and could reignite yen-carry trade unwinds — a classic source of volatility across equities, crypto, and FX.
These three releases span Treasury demand, Fed policy signals, and Japanese monetary conditions. Any combination of strong Treasury selling + hawkish Fed minutes + hot Japan CPI would create a tougher backdrop for risk assets.
The opposite mix would ease pressure.
I’ll be covering all three in real time.
Which one are you watching most closely?
Three major data points land within 72 hours and hit markets from different angles.
> Monday · 4:00 PM ET · US Foreign Portfolio Flows (TIC data)
Focus: Whether Japan and China continued selling U.S. Treasuries. Persistent official outflows would keep pressure on the dollar and long-end yields.
> Wednesday · 2:00 PM ET · FOMC Minutes (July meeting)
Watch for the balance of opinion. More members pushing for rate cuts would support risk assets. Dominant inflation concerns would lean hawkish and pressure risk-off positioning.
> Thursday/Friday · Japan CPI
A hotter-than-expected print raises the odds of a Bank of Japan hike and could reignite yen-carry trade unwinds — a classic source of volatility across equities, crypto, and FX.
These three releases span Treasury demand, Fed policy signals, and Japanese monetary conditions. Any combination of strong Treasury selling + hawkish Fed minutes + hot Japan CPI would create a tougher backdrop for risk assets.
The opposite mix would ease pressure.
I’ll be covering all three in real time.
Which one are you watching most closely?