I went through 5,873 daily $BTC closes going back to 2010 to see how much time Bitcoin has historically spent near cycle lows.
In the last two cycles, BTC stayed within roughly 10% of the eventual bottom for about 2 months, and within 20–30% for roughly 2–4 months.
The catch? That’s all measured with hindsight.
Take 2022. BTC was already within 20% of the eventual November low by mid-June, nearly 5 months before the actual bottom was confirmed.
There’s no starting gun telling you when the bottom is in.
Right now, BTC is around $62.7K, roughly 49.7% below the October 2025 high and 312 days removed from it.
The previous three cycle lows arrived 372–420 days after their respective highs, which puts a September/October bottom within the historical range.
But looking at drawdowns, previous cycle lows were around 75–81% below the high, meaning BTC historically had much deeper declines.
None of this is a forecast. We only have a small number of completed cycles to work with.
For me, the bigger takeaway is simple:
The opportunity around a BTC cycle low has historically lasted a few months. If you wait for absolute confirmation that the bottom is in, though, most of that window may already be gone.
#TradersCutFedRateHikeBetsBeforeMid2027
In the last two cycles, BTC stayed within roughly 10% of the eventual bottom for about 2 months, and within 20–30% for roughly 2–4 months.
The catch? That’s all measured with hindsight.
Take 2022. BTC was already within 20% of the eventual November low by mid-June, nearly 5 months before the actual bottom was confirmed.
There’s no starting gun telling you when the bottom is in.
Right now, BTC is around $62.7K, roughly 49.7% below the October 2025 high and 312 days removed from it.
The previous three cycle lows arrived 372–420 days after their respective highs, which puts a September/October bottom within the historical range.
But looking at drawdowns, previous cycle lows were around 75–81% below the high, meaning BTC historically had much deeper declines.
None of this is a forecast. We only have a small number of completed cycles to work with.
For me, the bigger takeaway is simple:
The opportunity around a BTC cycle low has historically lasted a few months. If you wait for absolute confirmation that the bottom is in, though, most of that window may already be gone.
#TradersCutFedRateHikeBetsBeforeMid2027