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In Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, polls and prediction markets significantly missed the mark, as underdog David Crowley narrowly beat Francesca Hong—despite earlier forecasts suggesting Hong would win by 20 points. Similar polling errors emerged in Michigan,
where Abdul El-Sayed clinched the Democratic Senate primary by a razor-thin one-point margin, even though surveys had predicted a more comfortable win. The mixed outcomes in Wisconsin and Minnesota may signal a shifting dynamic within the Democratic Party, with progressive candidates experiencing both wins and losses amid a wider wave of progressive momentum nationwide.