BREAKING: Bitcoin Now More Likely to Hit $50K Before $100K
Kalshi traders have flipped the odds: there is now a 59% chance Bitcoin reaches $50,000 before it hits $100,000.
The market has seen a sharp recent move higher in the “$50k first” probability (up 8.2 points), with roughly $195,000 in volume on the contract.
This reflects growing skepticism about a near-term return to six figures. With BTC currently trading in the low-to-mid $60,000s, the crowd is pricing a higher probability of a deeper correction before any sustained rally back toward previous cycle highs.
Prediction markets have been consistently cautious on the $100K timeline throughout 2026.
Does a 59% chance of $50k first change how you’re positioning, or do you still see $100K as the more likely next major milestone?
Kalshi traders have flipped the odds: there is now a 59% chance Bitcoin reaches $50,000 before it hits $100,000.
The market has seen a sharp recent move higher in the “$50k first” probability (up 8.2 points), with roughly $195,000 in volume on the contract.
This reflects growing skepticism about a near-term return to six figures. With BTC currently trading in the low-to-mid $60,000s, the crowd is pricing a higher probability of a deeper correction before any sustained rally back toward previous cycle highs.
Prediction markets have been consistently cautious on the $100K timeline throughout 2026.
Does a 59% chance of $50k first change how you’re positioning, or do you still see $100K as the more likely next major milestone?