BREAKING: The Clarity Act Is on Life Support
Prediction markets and analysts have sharply downgraded the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
> February peak: around 82% chance of passage
> Current reading: roughly 10–17% (Galaxy Research now at 10%; Polymarket has traded as low as 13%)
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has queued a procedural vote for September 15 after the August recess. That is widely viewed as the last realistic window before midterm politics take over the calendar.
The bill still needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster. Republicans hold the majority, so roughly seven Democratic senators must cross over.
A group of seven Democrats has repeatedly said the current text falls short on ethics rules, consumer protections, and enforcement language. Negotiations on those points remain stalled.
What started the year with broad “bipartisan support” messaging is now hanging by a thin legislative thread.
Does this collapse in odds change how you’re positioning for the rest of 2026, or are you still expecting a late push?
Prediction markets and analysts have sharply downgraded the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026.
> February peak: around 82% chance of passage
> Current reading: roughly 10–17% (Galaxy Research now at 10%; Polymarket has traded as low as 13%)
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has queued a procedural vote for September 15 after the August recess. That is widely viewed as the last realistic window before midterm politics take over the calendar.
The bill still needs 60 votes to clear a filibuster. Republicans hold the majority, so roughly seven Democratic senators must cross over.
A group of seven Democrats has repeatedly said the current text falls short on ethics rules, consumer protections, and enforcement language. Negotiations on those points remain stalled.
What started the year with broad “bipartisan support” messaging is now hanging by a thin legislative thread.
Does this collapse in odds change how you’re positioning for the rest of 2026, or are you still expecting a late push?