$SPY opened flat at $777.36 on Friday's weekly OPEX. The composite score dropped 41 points overnight to -11.5 — standard pre-OPEX dealer squaring. The engine crossed slightly negative at -5.6M as flow cooled. The gamma surface is still deeply positive, premium still 68.8% call, but the daily flow component shifted. The structure holds for six more hours.
The flip rose $4 overnight to $755.84. The cushion narrowed from $25.09 to $21.52 as deeper gamma at $751-$752 partially expired in the August 14 strip. After OPEX, the flip may settle in the $755-$758 range depending on how the August 21 surface reprices.
Premium stayed call-heavy at +$454M: $831M call vs $377M put. Puts opening 1.6:1, calls 2.5:1 — light positioning ratios for an OPEX day. The heavy building hasn't started yet. Call IV ticked up to 12.18% from yesterday's 11.96% series low. OPEX added a small amount of near-term event premium back. Skew at +0.53%, normal.
The week started Monday at $773.73 with record GEX at +$1.57B. Tuesday digested to $770.74, testing the $770 accelerator. Wednesday's CPI came in line, price climbed to $772.94, and the bull flag narrowed to $3.92. Wednesday PM broke $776.85, triggering the bull flag and cup and handle. Thursday hit $779.30 ATH, the $780 magnet hit +$1.19B, and GEX hit +$2.91B. Friday's OPEX expires $1.34B of gamma.
Week return: +0.53% from Monday's close. Third consecutive positive week. Price held the breakout level all week. $776.85 broke and held. Falling wedge target is $789, $11.64 away, 1.5%, with seventeen days remaining. $NVDA earnings in 12 trading days.
$756 is the flip. $777.36 is price. $775 is the floor. $780 is the magnet. $789 is the target. The structure held the breakout all week. The OPEX thins the blanket at the close. Monday reveals the August surface underneath.
The flip rose $4 overnight to $755.84. The cushion narrowed from $25.09 to $21.52 as deeper gamma at $751-$752 partially expired in the August 14 strip. After OPEX, the flip may settle in the $755-$758 range depending on how the August 21 surface reprices.
Premium stayed call-heavy at +$454M: $831M call vs $377M put. Puts opening 1.6:1, calls 2.5:1 — light positioning ratios for an OPEX day. The heavy building hasn't started yet. Call IV ticked up to 12.18% from yesterday's 11.96% series low. OPEX added a small amount of near-term event premium back. Skew at +0.53%, normal.
The week started Monday at $773.73 with record GEX at +$1.57B. Tuesday digested to $770.74, testing the $770 accelerator. Wednesday's CPI came in line, price climbed to $772.94, and the bull flag narrowed to $3.92. Wednesday PM broke $776.85, triggering the bull flag and cup and handle. Thursday hit $779.30 ATH, the $780 magnet hit +$1.19B, and GEX hit +$2.91B. Friday's OPEX expires $1.34B of gamma.
Week return: +0.53% from Monday's close. Third consecutive positive week. Price held the breakout level all week. $776.85 broke and held. Falling wedge target is $789, $11.64 away, 1.5%, with seventeen days remaining. $NVDA earnings in 12 trading days.
$756 is the flip. $777.36 is price. $775 is the floor. $780 is the magnet. $789 is the target. The structure held the breakout all week. The OPEX thins the blanket at the close. Monday reveals the August surface underneath.