#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
Tonight's CPI release, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten?
I'm actually not that worried about tonight's CPI; I predict it will most likely meet market expectations.
Why? Because the market is no longer truly trading on "whether inflation will continue to decline," but rather on whether core inflation will suddenly spiral out of control. Based on current energy prices, employment data, and previous inflation performance, I lean towards a mild decline in July's CPI, with an overall monthly rate of 0.1%, core monthly rate of 0.2%, and year-over-year expectations of 3.4% and 2.5% respectively, which are very likely to be met. The latest Reuters survey also provides basically consistent expectations.
So personally, what I care about more is not the CPI "meeting expectations" itself, but how the market trades after meeting expectations.
Nonfarm payrolls have clearly cooled down, and May and June employment figures have been significantly revised downward, indicating that the Federal Reserve is now facing a dilemma of "employment starting to loosen, but inflation hasn't fully returned to 2%." The September rate hike pricing has now returned to roughly a 50-50 split, essentially meaning the market is betting on the last card—the CPI.
I believe that if CPI meets expectations, it could actually become a catalyst for the bulls.
Because as long as core inflation does not exceed expectations, the market has reason to re-trade the combination of "weaker employment + cooling inflation," naturally pushing down September rate hike expectations, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. High-volatility assets like $BTC and $ETH might instead see a wave of re-pricing.
Of course, if core CPI directly jumps above 0.3%, the story would be completely different, and the market would start trading "September rate hike" again, with BTC likely taking a short-term hit first.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!
Tonight's CPI release, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten?
I'm actually not that worried about tonight's CPI; I predict it will most likely meet market expectations.
Why? Because the market is no longer truly trading on "whether inflation will continue to decline," but rather on whether core inflation will suddenly spiral out of control. Based on current energy prices, employment data, and previous inflation performance, I lean towards a mild decline in July's CPI, with an overall monthly rate of 0.1%, core monthly rate of 0.2%, and year-over-year expectations of 3.4% and 2.5% respectively, which are very likely to be met. The latest Reuters survey also provides basically consistent expectations.
So personally, what I care about more is not the CPI "meeting expectations" itself, but how the market trades after meeting expectations.
Nonfarm payrolls have clearly cooled down, and May and June employment figures have been significantly revised downward, indicating that the Federal Reserve is now facing a dilemma of "employment starting to loosen, but inflation hasn't fully returned to 2%." The September rate hike pricing has now returned to roughly a 50-50 split, essentially meaning the market is betting on the last card—the CPI.
I believe that if CPI meets expectations, it could actually become a catalyst for the bulls.
Because as long as core inflation does not exceed expectations, the market has reason to re-trade the combination of "weaker employment + cooling inflation," naturally pushing down September rate hike expectations, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. High-volatility assets like $BTC and $ETH might instead see a wave of re-pricing.
Of course, if core CPI directly jumps above 0.3%, the story would be completely different, and the market would start trading "September rate hike" again, with BTC likely taking a short-term hit first.
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice!