I was reading a recent analysis by Benjamin Cowen, and one point really surprised me. He argued that Bitcoin’s current market dynamics and investor behavior are starting to resemble previous cycle conditions.
According to him, social interest and investor enthusiasm have weakened significantly. He pointed to the social risk indicator falling near 0.2, which is much lower than levels seen in the previous four-year cycle.
Cowen also noted that volatility has declined and investor conviction appears weaker. Interestingly, he said the current environment has similarities with the bearish phases of 2018 and 2022.
He mentioned that summer weakness is common, while major market changes often happen in the final quarter of the year. On-chain indicators such as MVRV and the Z-score have not yet moved deeply below zero, suggesting caution is still warranted.
My view is that Bitcoin could remain under pressure until September, but the winter session may bring a stronger bullish recovery if investor interest returns.
#Binance #BTC☀
$BTC
According to him, social interest and investor enthusiasm have weakened significantly. He pointed to the social risk indicator falling near 0.2, which is much lower than levels seen in the previous four-year cycle.
Cowen also noted that volatility has declined and investor conviction appears weaker. Interestingly, he said the current environment has similarities with the bearish phases of 2018 and 2022.
He mentioned that summer weakness is common, while major market changes often happen in the final quarter of the year. On-chain indicators such as MVRV and the Z-score have not yet moved deeply below zero, suggesting caution is still warranted.
My view is that Bitcoin could remain under pressure until September, but the winter session may bring a stronger bullish recovery if investor interest returns.
#Binance #BTC☀
$BTC