BOJ rate hike odds went from 30% to 60% in a week. That's not nothing.

The yen carry trade hasn't unwound yet because the US-Japan rate gap is still wide enough to make it worth it. But if BOJ keeps hiking, that gap closes. Suddenly borrowing yen to buy risk assets stops being free money.

Then what? Forced unwinds. Sell everything, pay back the debt. We got a taste of this in August 2024. Next time could be worse.

Not saying it's guaranteed, but the setup is there. If you're levered into anything, might want to keep an eye on this.