As of August 10, 2026, BTC is around the $63–64K area, after an intraday low around $57.7K in July. The October 2025 ATH was around $126K, so Bitcoin is already roughly 50% below the peak.
1. The June/July low IS the bottom
There is a legitimate argument for this.
Bitcoin reached about $60,074 in February and subsequently made another major low around $58K in June/July. The market has then stabilized rather than continuing to collapse.
That matters because bear markets don't necessarily end with one dramatic V-shaped bottom. They can look like:
Selloff → first low → rally → retest → accumulation → breakout
2. The October/Q4 bottom argument is also VERY credible
This is the part I wouldn't dismiss.
The previous two major cycles had remarkably similar timing:
2017 top → 2018 bottom
2021 top → 2022 bottom
2025 top → potentially 2026 bottom
And the current cycle's top was October 6, 2025, around $126,198 intraday.
That makes October 2026 an extremely obvious date for cycle analysts to watch.
So I wouldn't say:
“The four-year cycle is dead.”
I'd say:
The four-year cycle is still a useful timing framework, but it shouldn't be treated as a clock.
The really important level for me isn't “October.” It's:
Does BTC make a higher high before making a new cycle low?
If yes, the probability that the bottom is already in jumps substantially.
If BTC instead keeps making lower highs and eventually loses ~$58K, then the October/Q4 thesis becomes much harder to ignore.
And that's the framework I'd use rather than trying to guess the exact day of the bottom.
1. The June/July low IS the bottom
There is a legitimate argument for this.
Bitcoin reached about $60,074 in February and subsequently made another major low around $58K in June/July. The market has then stabilized rather than continuing to collapse.
That matters because bear markets don't necessarily end with one dramatic V-shaped bottom. They can look like:
Selloff → first low → rally → retest → accumulation → breakout
2. The October/Q4 bottom argument is also VERY credible
This is the part I wouldn't dismiss.
The previous two major cycles had remarkably similar timing:
2017 top → 2018 bottom
2021 top → 2022 bottom
2025 top → potentially 2026 bottom
And the current cycle's top was October 6, 2025, around $126,198 intraday.
That makes October 2026 an extremely obvious date for cycle analysts to watch.
So I wouldn't say:
“The four-year cycle is dead.”
I'd say:
The four-year cycle is still a useful timing framework, but it shouldn't be treated as a clock.
The really important level for me isn't “October.” It's:
Does BTC make a higher high before making a new cycle low?
If yes, the probability that the bottom is already in jumps substantially.
If BTC instead keeps making lower highs and eventually loses ~$58K, then the October/Q4 thesis becomes much harder to ignore.
And that's the framework I'd use rather than trying to guess the exact day of the bottom.