Fitch Ratings has released a notable update on global energy markets, clarifying that its baseline assumption for Brent crude already factors in major potential supply disruptions.
According to Fitch, current market pricing and baseline forecasts have heavily integrated geopolitical friction, shipping bottlenecks, and ongoing risks in key producing regions. Rather than viewing temporary supply threats as unexpected shocks, analysts emphasize that these variables are already priced into the prevailing baseline.

This suggests that while short-term volatility remains inevitable, it will take a truly unprecedented structural shift -rather than standard geopolitical tensions- to drive oil prices significantly above existing long-term baseline expectations.

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